LEESBURG, Va. — When President Obama captured the White House nearly a year ago, his victory in Virginia was, for many Democrats, one of the most heartening moments of the night.
Brendan Smialowski for The New York Times
In Virginia, Robert F. McDonnell, center, a Republican, holds a nine-point lead over R. Creigh Deeds, a Democrat.
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Associated Press
R. Creigh Deeds campaigning in Arlington, Va.
He was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win this state since 1964, assembling a coalition — independent voters, economically distressed rural Democrats and blacks — that his party saw as evidence that it could take and hold Republican-leaning areas across the nation.
But things are different today. At a time when Mr. Obama’s national approval ratings have declined, a Democratic candidate for governor, R. Creigh Deeds, is struggling to keep Virginia in the Democratic column.
The strong sentiment against George W. Bush that reverberated throughout this state one year ago has dissipated; Mr. Obama’s policies have become a flash point for Mr. Deeds’s Republican opponent, Robert F. McDonnell, who has used it to draw independents to his camp.
There are two big elections in 2009 — the contest for governor here and one in New Jersey where Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, is struggling to survive in a spirited three-way race.
Off-year elections are prone to overinterpretation, and governor’s races tend to be determined by the quality of the candidates and local issues rather than national politics; overcrowded highways are the biggest topic this year in Virginia.
For all that, Virginia, a laboratory for many of the ways Mr. Obama tried to change the ideological appeal and tactics of his party, is looming as an early if imprecise test of this president and his policies.
It is measuring the ability of Mr. Obama to build a coalition and hold it together during tough political battles in Washington. It could be an early gauge of whether Mr. Obama and his party have now taken political ownership of the rising unemployment rate and the continued sense of economic anxiety that he used a year ago to the advantage of Democrats. Most ominously, it is signaling the problem Democrats might have in the midterm Congressional elections next year with independent voters, upset with Mr. Obama over increasing deficits and his advocacy of big-government programs.
A White House that has shown no hesitation to delve into state races — Mr. Obama is planning to make at least one more trip to New Jersey on behalf of Mr. Corzine, aides said — has been struggling to figure out how to deal with Virginia. Mr. Deeds’s aides have pleaded with the White House to send Mr. Obama into the state; it has yet to agree.
“The most precious commodity we have is the president’s time, and we have to appropriate it on a rational basis between now and Election Day,” said David Axelrod, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama.
Their apprehension was underscored on Friday after The Washington Post published a poll showing that Mr. McDonnell’s lead over Mr. Deeds had expanded in recent weeks to nine percentage points, 53 percent to 44 percent. A month earlier, Mr. McDonnell had led by 4 points.
Among independent voters, Mr. Deeds trailed Mr. McDonnell by 21 points in a recent poll.
Mr. Obama’s advisers argued that it would be a mistake to draw any national lessons from Virginia. Democrats won races for governor in both Virginia and New Jersey in 2001, and Mr. Bush went on to win re-election easily in 2004. And for more than 30 years, the party that has won the White House has in the following year lost the Virginia governor’s seat.
“I would just hesitate to make sweeping judgments about what does this mean in the here and now in terms of health care, and also the 2010 Congressional races in both states and the 2012 presidential election,” said David Plouffe, who was Mr. Obama’s campaign manager.
But Mr. McDonnell said in an interview that one reason he was doing so well was that Mr. Deeds was paying a price for what Democrats were doing in Washington.
“There are blocs of independent voters that are being driven over — or inclined to support me — because they are very concerned about these federal policies: its spending and the new intrusions into the free enterprise system,” Mr. McDonnell said. “Those voters probably leaned toward President Obama in the last cycle. But when voters see specifics —cap and trade, card check, unfunded mandates — I think some bloc of voters said, ‘This is not the change we thought we are getting, and because we are fiscally conservative, we are going to take another look at the Republican candidate for governor.’ ”
Nick Ayres, the executive director of the Republican Governors Association, which has spent over $5 million here to try to put Virginia back in the Republican column, said Mr. Obama and his party would certainly suffer damage should Mr. Deeds lose. “This is a state that Obama won by seven points,” he said, adding: “They don’t want this to be their Olympics Part II.”
In New Jersey, Mr. Corzine is struggling in his bid for re-election against Christopher J. Christie. A Democratic loss there would be an embarrassment for this White House and provide a jolt of energy to a Republican Party at a crucial time, as it is recruiting candidates and raising money for the midterm elections. Republicans in 1993 won the governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia and went on to capture Congress in 1994.
However, because of Mr. Corzine’s deep unpopularity in that state, it is not as clear that a Democratic defeat there would offer lessons that go beyond New Jersey.
In Virginia, Mr. Deeds has made efforts to put some distance between himself and Mr. Obama, including saying he was not an Obama Democrat. In an interview, he said his difficulties to date were the result of the tough economy. The current governor, Tim Kaine, is a Democrat who is barred from seeking re-election because of term limits.
“Right now, the economy is in tough shape, and they are seeing these elections through those lenses,” Mr. Deeds said. “People are concerned about the economy, and that is our headwind.”
Still, Mr. Deeds seems ambivalent about the president, inviting him to campaign here even as he places at least some of the blame for his troubles on what Democrats are doing in Washington.
Mr. Deeds said that Democrats should not be overly confident about Virginia and suggested that in some ways, Mr. Obama had enjoyed a unique success, given his particular appeal.
“With so much economic turmoil, Barack Obama was a hope agent,” he said. “He’s a leader and dealer in hope. A merchant of hope.”
“He was here once, and I expect him to come back again,” Mr. Deeds said.
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